The effect of climate change on partial migration - the blue tit paradox

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The effect of climate change on partial migration - the blue tit paradox. / Nilsson, Anna; Lindström, Åke; Jonzén, Niclas; Nilsson, Sven; Karlsson, L.

In: Global Change Biology, Vol. 12, No. 10, 2006, p. 2014-2022.

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Nilsson, Anna ; Lindström, Åke ; Jonzén, Niclas ; Nilsson, Sven ; Karlsson, L. / The effect of climate change on partial migration - the blue tit paradox. In: Global Change Biology. 2006 ; Vol. 12, No. 10. pp. 2014-2022.

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TY - JOUR

T1 - The effect of climate change on partial migration - the blue tit paradox

AU - Nilsson, Anna

AU - Lindström, Åke

AU - Jonzén, Niclas

AU - Nilsson, Sven

AU - Karlsson, L

PY - 2006

Y1 - 2006

N2 - Climate change has proven to affect various aspects of the migration of birds. In response to milder winters making the habitat more profitable and increasing the survival of residents, the migratory fraction of partially migratory populations has been predicted to decline. We studied the blue tit Parus caeruleus, a common partial migrant in southern Sweden. The numbers migrating at Falsterbo, a migratory passage site in SW Sweden, has increased during the last decades, in parallel with increasing winter and annual temperatures. Migration data from Falsterbo were compared with yearly indices of the size of the breeding population as estimated by the Swedish National Bird Monitoring Programme. Over the study period 1975-2004, also the breeding population has increased in size. The proportion of blue tits migrating each year did not change over the study period, or possibly even increased slightly, which is in contrast to how climate change has been predicted to influence populations containing both migratory and resident individuals. The most important factors determining the intensity of blue tit migration in a given year was the size of an important winter food source, the beech mast crop (more migrants at lower crops) and the size of the breeding population (more migrants at higher densities).

AB - Climate change has proven to affect various aspects of the migration of birds. In response to milder winters making the habitat more profitable and increasing the survival of residents, the migratory fraction of partially migratory populations has been predicted to decline. We studied the blue tit Parus caeruleus, a common partial migrant in southern Sweden. The numbers migrating at Falsterbo, a migratory passage site in SW Sweden, has increased during the last decades, in parallel with increasing winter and annual temperatures. Migration data from Falsterbo were compared with yearly indices of the size of the breeding population as estimated by the Swedish National Bird Monitoring Programme. Over the study period 1975-2004, also the breeding population has increased in size. The proportion of blue tits migrating each year did not change over the study period, or possibly even increased slightly, which is in contrast to how climate change has been predicted to influence populations containing both migratory and resident individuals. The most important factors determining the intensity of blue tit migration in a given year was the size of an important winter food source, the beech mast crop (more migrants at lower crops) and the size of the breeding population (more migrants at higher densities).

U2 - 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01237.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01237.x

M3 - Article

VL - 12

SP - 2014

EP - 2022

JO - Global Change Biology

T2 - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

SN - 1354-1013

IS - 10

ER -