Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern Mediterranean countries, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


OBJECTIVES: We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to estimate trends of HIV/AIDS burden in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries between 1990 and 2015.

METHODS: Tailored estimation methods were used to produce final estimates of mortality. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying the mortality rate by population by age-specific life expectancy. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were computed as the prevalence of a sequela multiplied by its disability weight.

RESULTS: In 2015, the rate of HIV/AIDS deaths in the EMR was 1.8 (1.4-2.5) per 100,000 population, a 43% increase from 1990 (0.3; 0.2-0.8). Consequently, the rate of YLLs due to HIV/AIDS increased from 15.3 (7.6-36.2) per 100,000 in 1990 to 81.9 (65.3-114.4) in 2015. The rate of YLDs increased from 1.3 (0.6-3.1) in 1990 to 4.4 (2.7-6.6) in 2015.

CONCLUSIONS: HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality increased in the EMR since 1990. To reverse this trend and achieve epidemic control, EMR countries should strengthen HIV surveillance, and scale up HIV antiretroviral therapy and comprehensive prevention services.


  • Ali H. Mokdad
  • GBD 2015 Eastern Mediterranean Region HIV/AIDS Collaborators
External organisations
  • Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Research areas and keywords

Subject classification (UKÄ) – MANDATORY

  • Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
  • Infectious Medicine
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)123-136
JournalInternational Journal of Public Health
Issue numberS1
Early online date2017 Aug 3
Publication statusPublished - 2018
Publication categoryResearch