What to do with a forecast?

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

In the literature one nds two non-equivalent responses to forecasts; deference and updating. Herein it is demonstrated that, under certain conditions, both responses are entirely determined by one's beliefs as regards the calibration of the forecaster. Further it is argued that the choice as to whether to defer to, or update on, a forecast is determined by the aim of the recipient of that forecast. If the aim of the recipient is to match their credence with the prevailing objective chances, they should defer to the forecast; if it
is to maximize the veritistic value of their beliefs, they should update on the forecast.

Details

Authors
Organisations
Research areas and keywords

Subject classification (UKÄ) – MANDATORY

  • Philosophy

Keywords

  • Deference, Forecast, Calibration, Bayesianism
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1881-1907
JournalSynthese
Volume191
Issue number8
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Publication categoryResearch
Peer-reviewedYes