A Vascular Aging Index as Independent Predictor of Cardiovascular Events and Total Mortality in an Elderly Urban Population

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The morphology and function of the arteries can be directly measured using different established methods. This prospective cohort study aimed to translate 2 of these, aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV) and carotid intima–media thickness (cIMT), into a combined Vascular Aging Index (VAI) and then evaluate the predictive power of aPWV, cIMT, and VAI. Patients (n = 2718) were included from the cardiovascular arm of the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (median age 71.9 years, 62.2% females). Total follow-up time was 16 448 person-years and a composite cardiovascular disease (CVD) end point was used. Cox regressions yielded adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) per 1 standard deviation increment of loge aPWV, loge cIMT, and loge VAI of 1.25 (1.08-1.45, P =.003), 1.27 (1.13-1.44, P <.001), and 1.45 (1.26-1.68, P <.001), respectively. The C-statistics increased from 0.714 to 0.734 when adding aPWV and cIMT to a model of conventional risk factors. Net Reclassification Index also showed a significant (P <.001) improvement for the classification of event-free patients and no change for patients with events. A VAI based on aPWV and cIMT had a good predictive performance. Used together, aPWV and cIMT incrementally and significantly improve the prediction of CVD events by correctly down-adjusting the predicted risk for noncases.


Enheter & grupper
Externa organisationer
  • Lund University
  • Skåne University Hospital

Ämnesklassifikation (UKÄ) – OBLIGATORISK

  • Kardiologi


Sidor (från-till)929-937
Utgåva nummer10
Tidigt onlinedatum2019
StatusPublished - 2019
Peer review utfördJa