An Evacuation Decision Model based on perceived risk, social influence and behavioural uncertainty

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Abstract

The behaviour of people in the first stage of an evacuation can have a significant impact on the time required to reach a safe place. This behaviour is known in literature as pre-evacuation behaviour and it has been studied for many different evacuating scenarios. Despite the large number of studies, the representation of this behaviour is often oversimplified in most of the existing evacuation models. This paper aims to introduce a novel Evacuation Decision Model, allowing predicting the pre-evacuation state of an evacuee among three possible states (normal, investigation and evacuation) considering perceived risk for an evacuation scenario. The proposed model assumes that evacuees’ perceived risk is affected by several environmental and social cues as well as by demographics and personal characteristics of evacuees. The concept of behavioural uncertainty is also included in the model and a formulation to calibrate the proposed model using a likelihood function is then provided.

Detaljer

Författare
Enheter & grupper
Externa organisationer
  • Polytechnic University of Bari
Forskningsområden

Ämnesklassifikation (UKÄ) – OBLIGATORISK

  • Annan samhällsbyggnadsteknik

Nyckelord

Originalspråkengelska
Sidor (från-till)226-242
Antal sidor17
TidskriftSimulation Modelling Practice and Theory
Volym66
StatusPublished - 2016 aug
PublikationskategoriForskning
Peer review utfördJa