Assessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leaching

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title = "Assessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leaching",
abstract = "In this study, a global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is forced with spatial information (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) 2 level) of land-use intensity change in the form of nitrogen (N) fertilization derived from a model chain which informed the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model. We analysed the combined role of climate change and land-use intensity change for trade-offs between agricultural yield and N leaching in the European Union under two plausible scenarios up until 2040. Furthermore, we assessed both driver importance and uncertainty in future trends based on an alternative land-use intensity dataset derived from an integrated assessment model. LPJ-GUESS simulated an increase in wheat and maize yield but also N leaching for most regions when driven by changes in land-use intensity and climate under RCP 8.5. Under RCP 4.5, N leaching is reduced in 53{\%} of the regions while there is a trade-off in crop productivity. The most important factors influencing yield were CO2 (wheat) and climate (maize), but N application almost equaled these in importance. For N leaching, N application was the most important factor, followed by climate. Therefore, using a constant N application dataset in the absence of future projections has a substantial effect on simulated ecosystem responses, especially for maize yield and N leaching. This study is a first assessment of future N leaching and yield responses based on projections of climate and land-use intensity. It further highlights the importance of accounting for changes in future N applications and land-use intensity in general when evaluating environmental impacts over long time periods.",
keywords = "Climate change, Fertilization, Land-use intensity projections, LPJ-GUESS, Nitrogen leaching, Trade-offs",
author = "Blanke, {Jan Hendrik} and Stefan Olin and Julia St{\"u}rck and Ullrika Sahlin and Mats Lindeskog and John Helming and Veiko Lehsten",
year = "2017",
month = "2",
day = "15",
doi = "10.1016/j.agee.2017.01.038",
language = "English",
volume = "239",
pages = "385--398",
journal = "Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment",
issn = "1873-2305",
publisher = "Elsevier",