Assessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leaching

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Assessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leaching. / Blanke, Jan Hendrik; Olin, Stefan; Stürck, Julia; Sahlin, Ullrika; Lindeskog, Mats; Helming, John; Lehsten, Veiko.

I: Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, Vol. 239, 15.02.2017, s. 385-398.

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragArtikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift

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T1 - Assessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leaching

AU - Blanke, Jan Hendrik

AU - Olin, Stefan

AU - Stürck, Julia

AU - Sahlin, Ullrika

AU - Lindeskog, Mats

AU - Helming, John

AU - Lehsten, Veiko

PY - 2017/2/15

Y1 - 2017/2/15

N2 - In this study, a global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is forced with spatial information (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) 2 level) of land-use intensity change in the form of nitrogen (N) fertilization derived from a model chain which informed the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model. We analysed the combined role of climate change and land-use intensity change for trade-offs between agricultural yield and N leaching in the European Union under two plausible scenarios up until 2040. Furthermore, we assessed both driver importance and uncertainty in future trends based on an alternative land-use intensity dataset derived from an integrated assessment model. LPJ-GUESS simulated an increase in wheat and maize yield but also N leaching for most regions when driven by changes in land-use intensity and climate under RCP 8.5. Under RCP 4.5, N leaching is reduced in 53% of the regions while there is a trade-off in crop productivity. The most important factors influencing yield were CO2 (wheat) and climate (maize), but N application almost equaled these in importance. For N leaching, N application was the most important factor, followed by climate. Therefore, using a constant N application dataset in the absence of future projections has a substantial effect on simulated ecosystem responses, especially for maize yield and N leaching. This study is a first assessment of future N leaching and yield responses based on projections of climate and land-use intensity. It further highlights the importance of accounting for changes in future N applications and land-use intensity in general when evaluating environmental impacts over long time periods.

AB - In this study, a global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is forced with spatial information (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) 2 level) of land-use intensity change in the form of nitrogen (N) fertilization derived from a model chain which informed the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model. We analysed the combined role of climate change and land-use intensity change for trade-offs between agricultural yield and N leaching in the European Union under two plausible scenarios up until 2040. Furthermore, we assessed both driver importance and uncertainty in future trends based on an alternative land-use intensity dataset derived from an integrated assessment model. LPJ-GUESS simulated an increase in wheat and maize yield but also N leaching for most regions when driven by changes in land-use intensity and climate under RCP 8.5. Under RCP 4.5, N leaching is reduced in 53% of the regions while there is a trade-off in crop productivity. The most important factors influencing yield were CO2 (wheat) and climate (maize), but N application almost equaled these in importance. For N leaching, N application was the most important factor, followed by climate. Therefore, using a constant N application dataset in the absence of future projections has a substantial effect on simulated ecosystem responses, especially for maize yield and N leaching. This study is a first assessment of future N leaching and yield responses based on projections of climate and land-use intensity. It further highlights the importance of accounting for changes in future N applications and land-use intensity in general when evaluating environmental impacts over long time periods.

KW - Climate change

KW - Fertilization

KW - Land-use intensity projections

KW - LPJ-GUESS

KW - Nitrogen leaching

KW - Trade-offs

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85012942138&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.agee.2017.01.038

DO - 10.1016/j.agee.2017.01.038

M3 - Article

VL - 239

SP - 385

EP - 398

JO - Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

T2 - Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

JF - Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

SN - 1873-2305

ER -