Broken symmetry and long-term forecasting

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragArtikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift

Abstract

[1] This paper takes a novel approach to a known basic difficulty with computer simulations of nonlinear dynamical systems relevant to climate modeling. Specifically, we show by minimal examples how small systematic modeling errors might survive averaging over an ensemble of initial conditions. The resulting predictive errors can grow slowly enough initially that they may be overlooked without contradicting known behaviors on middle scales. However, they may nonetheless be significant on long timescales, given our current knowledge. Mathematical symmetry, which has been investigated for improving accuracy in computational algorithms, turns out to provide a novel perspective to this issue.

Detaljer

Författare
  • Christopher Essex
  • Silvana Ilie
  • Robert M. Corless
Enheter & grupper
Forskningsområden

Ämnesklassifikation (UKÄ) – OBLIGATORISK

  • Matematik
Originalspråkengelska
TidskriftJournal of Geophysical Research
Volym112
Utgåva nummerD24
StatusPublished - 2007
PublikationskategoriForskning
Peer review utfördJa