Changes of storm properties in the United States: Observations and multimodel ensemble projections

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragArtikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift

Abstract

Changes in climate are likely to induce changes in precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency, duration and patterns of events. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of multiple regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to simulate storm properties including storm duration, inter-storm period, storm intensity, and within-storm patterns at eight locations in the continental US. We also investigate the future projections of them based on precipitation from NARCCAP historic runs and future runs. Results illustrate that NARCCAP RCMs are consistent with observed precipitation in the seasonal variation of storm duration and inter-storm period, but fail to simulate the magnitude. The ability to simulate the seasonal trend of average storm intensity varies among locations. Within-storm patterns from RCMs exhibit greater variability than from observed records. Comparisons between RCM-historic simulations and RCM projections indicate that there is a large variation in the future changes in storm properties. However, multi-model ensembles of the storm properties suggest that most regions of the United States will experience future changes in storm properties that includes shorter storm duration, longer inter-storm period, and larger average storm intensity.

Detaljer

Författare
  • Peng Jiang
  • Zhongbo Yu
  • Mahesh R. Gautam
  • Feifei Yuan
  • Kumud Acharya
Enheter & grupper
Externa organisationer
  • Desert Research Institute (DRI), Las Vegas
  • Hohai University
  • California Department of Water Resources
Forskningsområden

Ämnesklassifikation (UKÄ) – OBLIGATORISK

  • Klimatforskning

Nyckelord

Originalspråkengelska
Sidor (från-till)41-52
Antal sidor12
TidskriftGlobal and Planetary Change
Volym142
StatusPublished - 2016 jul 1
PublikationskategoriForskning
Peer review utfördJa