Consideration of uncertainties in LCA for infrastructure using probabilistic methods

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Consideration of uncertainties in LCA for infrastructure using probabilistic methods. / Larsson Ivanov, Oskar; Honfi, Dániel; Santandrea, Fabio; Stripple, Håkan.

I: Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, Vol. 15, Nr. 6, 2019, s. 711-724.

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragArtikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift

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Larsson Ivanov, Oskar ; Honfi, Dániel ; Santandrea, Fabio ; Stripple, Håkan. / Consideration of uncertainties in LCA for infrastructure using probabilistic methods. I: Structure and Infrastructure Engineering. 2019 ; Vol. 15, Nr. 6. s. 711-724.

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Consideration of uncertainties in LCA for infrastructure using probabilistic methods

AU - Larsson Ivanov, Oskar

AU - Honfi, Dániel

AU - Santandrea, Fabio

AU - Stripple, Håkan

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - The construction and usage of transport infrastructure are major causes of greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption. The effects of resource consumption and pollutant emissions are often quantified through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) models. All decisions made in infrastructure projects during the whole life cycle are afflicted by uncertainty, e.g. physical properties of materials or amount of pollutants emitted by certain processes. The pervasive role of uncertainty is reflected in LCA models, which therefore should consider uncertainty from various sources and provide a sound quantification of their effects. The aim of the work presented in this paper is to give an overview of different sources of uncertainty in LCA of infrastructure projects and to describe systematic methods to evaluate their influence on the results. The possibility of including uncertainty in a LCA-tool for infrastructure is presented, studying the sensitivity of the model output to the input parameters and two alternative approaches for propagation of uncertainty using two case studies. It is shown that, besides the influence of uncertainty in emission factors, other inputs such as material amounts and service life could contribute significantly to the variability of model output and has to be considered if reliable results are sought.

AB - The construction and usage of transport infrastructure are major causes of greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption. The effects of resource consumption and pollutant emissions are often quantified through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) models. All decisions made in infrastructure projects during the whole life cycle are afflicted by uncertainty, e.g. physical properties of materials or amount of pollutants emitted by certain processes. The pervasive role of uncertainty is reflected in LCA models, which therefore should consider uncertainty from various sources and provide a sound quantification of their effects. The aim of the work presented in this paper is to give an overview of different sources of uncertainty in LCA of infrastructure projects and to describe systematic methods to evaluate their influence on the results. The possibility of including uncertainty in a LCA-tool for infrastructure is presented, studying the sensitivity of the model output to the input parameters and two alternative approaches for propagation of uncertainty using two case studies. It is shown that, besides the influence of uncertainty in emission factors, other inputs such as material amounts and service life could contribute significantly to the variability of model output and has to be considered if reliable results are sought.

KW - bridges

KW - Life cycle assessment

KW - Monte Carlo simulations

KW - tunnels

KW - uncertainty

KW - variation mode and effect analysis

U2 - 10.1080/15732479.2019.1572200

DO - 10.1080/15732479.2019.1572200

M3 - Article

VL - 15

SP - 711

EP - 724

JO - Structure and Infrastructure Engineering

T2 - Structure and Infrastructure Engineering

JF - Structure and Infrastructure Engineering

SN - 1573-2479

IS - 6

ER -