Decision making with unreliable probabilities

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragArtikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift


This paper presents a decision theory which allows subjects to account for the uncertainties of their probability estimates. This is accomplished by modelling beliefs about states of nature by means of a class of probability measures. In order to represent uncertainties of those beliefs a measure of epistemic reliability is introduced. The suggested decision theory is evaluated in the light of empirical evidence on ambiguity and uncertainty in decision making. The theory is also compared to Tversky & Kahneman's prospect theory.


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Ämnesklassifikation (UKÄ) – OBLIGATORISK

  • Filosofi
Sidor (från-till)240-251
TidskriftBritish Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology
Utgåva nummer2
StatusPublished - 1983
Peer review utfördJa

Relaterad forskningsoutput

Peter Gärdenfors & Nils-Eric Sahlin, 1987, System Design and Human Interaction. Sage, A. P. (red.). IEEE - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., s. 102-121

Forskningsoutput: Kapitel i bok/rapport/Conference proceedingKapitel samlingsverk

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