Demographic controls of future global fire risk

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragArtikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift

Abstract

Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

Detaljer

Författare
Enheter & grupper
Externa organisationer
  • Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
  • Shanghai University
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research
Forskningsområden

Ämnesklassifikation (UKÄ) – OBLIGATORISK

  • Klimatforskning
Originalspråkengelska
Sidor (från-till)781-785
Antal sidor5
TidskriftNature Climate Change
Volym6
Utgåva nummer8
StatusPublished - 2016 aug 1
PublikationskategoriForskning
Peer review utfördJa