ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragÖversiktsartikel

Abstract

Earth system models (ESMs) are key tools for providing climate projections under different scenarios of human-induced forcing. ESMs include a large number of additional processes and feedbacks such as biogeochemical cycles that traditional physical climate models do not consider. Yet, some processes such as cloud dynamics and ecosystem functional response still have fairly high uncertainties. In this article, we present an overview of climate feedbacks for Earth system components currently included in state-of-the-art ESMs and discuss the challenges to evaluate and quantify them. Uncertainties in feedback quantification arise from the interdependencies of biogeochemical matter fluxes and physical properties, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of processes, and the lack of long-term continuous observational data to constrain them. We present an outlook for promising approaches that can help to quantify and to constrain the large number of feedbacks in ESMs in the future. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research (researchers, lecturers, and students). This study updates and significantly expands upon the last comprehensive overview of climate feedbacks in ESMs, which was produced 15 years ago (NRC, 2003).

Detaljer

Författare
  • Christoph Heinze
  • Veronika Eyring
  • Pierre Friedlingstein
  • Colin Jones
  • Yves Balkanski
  • William Collins
  • Thierry Fichefet
  • Shuang Gao
  • Alex Hall
  • Detelina Ivanova
  • Wolfgang Knorr
  • Reto Knutti
  • Alexander Löw
  • Michael Ponater
  • Martin Schultz
  • Michael Schulz
  • Pier Siebesma
  • Joao Teixeira
  • George Tselioudis
  • Martin Vancoppenolle
Enheter & grupper
Externa organisationer
  • University of Bergen
  • German Aerospace Center (DLR)
  • University of Bremen
  • University of Exeter
  • University of Leeds
  • Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines University
  • University of Reading
  • University of California, Los Angeles
  • Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
  • ETH Zürich
  • Jülich Research Centre
  • Norwegian Meteorological Institute
  • Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
  • California Institute of Technology
  • NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
  • NORCE Norwegian Research Centre
  • Université catholique de Louvain
  • Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich
  • Delft University of Technology
  • Paris-Sorbonne University
Forskningsområden

Ämnesklassifikation (UKÄ) – OBLIGATORISK

  • Klimatforskning
Originalspråkengelska
Sidor (från-till)379-452
Antal sidor74
TidskriftEarth System Dynamics
Volym10
Utgåva nummer3
StatusPublished - 2019 jul 10
PublikationskategoriForskning
Peer review utfördJa