Estimated health benefits of exhaust free transport in the city of Malmö, Southern Sweden

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Estimated health benefits of exhaust free transport in the city of Malmö, Southern Sweden. / Malmqvist, Ebba; Lisberg Jensen, Ebba; Westerberg, Karin; Stroh, Emilie; Rittner, Ralf; Gustafsson, Susanna; Spanne, Mårten; Nilsson, Henric; Oudin, Anna.

I: Environment International, Vol. 118, 01.09.2018, s. 78-85.

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Malmqvist, Ebba ; Lisberg Jensen, Ebba ; Westerberg, Karin ; Stroh, Emilie ; Rittner, Ralf ; Gustafsson, Susanna ; Spanne, Mårten ; Nilsson, Henric ; Oudin, Anna. / Estimated health benefits of exhaust free transport in the city of Malmö, Southern Sweden. I: Environment International. 2018 ; Vol. 118. s. 78-85.

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimated health benefits of exhaust free transport in the city of Malmö, Southern Sweden

AU - Malmqvist, Ebba

AU - Lisberg Jensen, Ebba

AU - Westerberg, Karin

AU - Stroh, Emilie

AU - Rittner, Ralf

AU - Gustafsson, Susanna

AU - Spanne, Mårten

AU - Nilsson, Henric

AU - Oudin, Anna

PY - 2018/9/1

Y1 - 2018/9/1

N2 - Air pollution is responsible for one in eight premature deaths worldwide, and thereby a major threat to human health. Health impact assessments of hypothetic changes in air pollution concentrations can be used as a mean of assessing the health impacts of policy, plans and projects, and support decision-makers in choices to prevent disease. The aim of this study was to estimate health impacts attributable to a hypothetical decrease in air pollution concentrations in the city of Malmö in Southern Sweden corresponding to a policy on-road transportations without tail-pipe emissions in the municipality. We used air pollution data modelled for each of the 326,092 inhabitants in Malmö by a Gaussian dispersion model combined with an emission database with >40,000 sources. The dispersion model calculates Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) (later transformed into Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)) and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μg/m3 (PM2.5) with high spatial and temporal resolution (85 m and 1 h, respectively). The average individual reduction was 5.1 (ranging from 0.6 to 11.8) μg/m3 in NO2, which would prevent 55 (2% of all deaths) to 93 (4%) deaths annually, depending on dose-response function used. Furthermore, we estimate that the NO2 reduction would result in 21 (6%) fewer cases of incident asthma in children, 95 (10%) fewer children with bronchitis every year, 30 (1%) fewer hospital admissions for respiratory disease, 87(4%) fewer dementia cases, and 11(11%) fewer cases of preeclampsia every year. The average reduction in PM2.5 of 0.6 (ranging from 0.1 till 1.7) μg/m3 would mean that 2729 (0.3%) work days would not be lost due to sick-days and that there would be 16,472 fewer restricted activity days (0.3%) that year had all on-road transportations been without tail-pipe emissions. Even though the estimates are sensitive to the dose-response functions used and to exposure misclassification errors, even the most conservative estimate of the number of prevented deaths is 7 times larger than the annual traffic fatalities in Malmö, indicating a substantial possibility to reduce the health burden attributed to tail-pipe emissions in the study area.

AB - Air pollution is responsible for one in eight premature deaths worldwide, and thereby a major threat to human health. Health impact assessments of hypothetic changes in air pollution concentrations can be used as a mean of assessing the health impacts of policy, plans and projects, and support decision-makers in choices to prevent disease. The aim of this study was to estimate health impacts attributable to a hypothetical decrease in air pollution concentrations in the city of Malmö in Southern Sweden corresponding to a policy on-road transportations without tail-pipe emissions in the municipality. We used air pollution data modelled for each of the 326,092 inhabitants in Malmö by a Gaussian dispersion model combined with an emission database with >40,000 sources. The dispersion model calculates Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) (later transformed into Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)) and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μg/m3 (PM2.5) with high spatial and temporal resolution (85 m and 1 h, respectively). The average individual reduction was 5.1 (ranging from 0.6 to 11.8) μg/m3 in NO2, which would prevent 55 (2% of all deaths) to 93 (4%) deaths annually, depending on dose-response function used. Furthermore, we estimate that the NO2 reduction would result in 21 (6%) fewer cases of incident asthma in children, 95 (10%) fewer children with bronchitis every year, 30 (1%) fewer hospital admissions for respiratory disease, 87(4%) fewer dementia cases, and 11(11%) fewer cases of preeclampsia every year. The average reduction in PM2.5 of 0.6 (ranging from 0.1 till 1.7) μg/m3 would mean that 2729 (0.3%) work days would not be lost due to sick-days and that there would be 16,472 fewer restricted activity days (0.3%) that year had all on-road transportations been without tail-pipe emissions. Even though the estimates are sensitive to the dose-response functions used and to exposure misclassification errors, even the most conservative estimate of the number of prevented deaths is 7 times larger than the annual traffic fatalities in Malmö, indicating a substantial possibility to reduce the health burden attributed to tail-pipe emissions in the study area.

KW - Air pollution

KW - Clean air policy

KW - Health effects

KW - Health impact assessment

KW - HIA

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85047620410&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.035

DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.035

M3 - Article

VL - 118

SP - 78

EP - 85

JO - Environmental International

T2 - Environmental International

JF - Environmental International

SN - 1873-6750

ER -