Multivariable flexible modelling for estimating complete, smoothed life tables for sub-national populations

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Bibtex

@article{b00ebf13729348678fbe3c0ddcdd0be2,
title = "Multivariable flexible modelling for estimating complete, smoothed life tables for sub-national populations",
abstract = "BACKGROUND: The methods currently available to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates for sub-populations are subject to a number of important limitations. We propose two alternative multivariable approaches: a relational model and a Poisson model both using restricted cubic splines.METHODS: We evaluated a flexible Poisson and flexible relational model against the Elandt-Johnson approach in a simulation study using 100 random samples of population and death counts, with different sampling proportions and data arrangements. Estimated rates were compared to the original mortality rates using goodness-of-fit measures and life expectancy. We further investigated an approach for determining optimal knot locations in the Poisson model.RESULTS: The flexible Poisson model outperformed the flexible relational and Elandt-Johnson methods with the smallest sample of data (1{\%}). With the largest sample of data (20{\%}), the flexible Poisson and flexible relational models performed comparably, though the flexible Poisson model displayed a slight advantage. Both approaches tended to underestimate infant mortality and thereby overestimate life expectancy at birth. The flexible Poisson model performed much better at young ages when knots were fixed a priori. For ages 30 and above, results were similar to the model with no fixed knots.CONCLUSIONS: The flexible Poisson model is recommended because it derives robust and unbiased estimates for sub-populations without making strong assumptions about age-specific mortality profiles. Fixing knots a priori in the final model greatly improves fit at the young ages.",
keywords = "Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, England/epidemiology, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Life Expectancy, Life Tables, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Multivariate Analysis, Poisson Distribution, Young Adult",
author = "Bernard Rachet and Camille Maringe and Woods, {Laura M} and Libby Ellis and Devon Spika and Claudia Allemani",
year = "2015",
month = "12",
day = "16",
doi = "10.1186/s12889-015-2534-3",
language = "English",
volume = "15",
journal = "BMC Public Health",
issn = "1471-2458",
publisher = "BioMed Central",

}