Reevaluating the Influence of Leaders Under Proportional Representation: Quantitative Analysis of Text in an Electoral Experiment

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Reevaluating the Influence of Leaders Under Proportional Representation : Quantitative Analysis of Text in an Electoral Experiment. / Fredén, Annika; Sikström, Sverker.

I: Frontiers in Psychology, Vol. 12, 2021, s. 604135.

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragArtikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Reevaluating the Influence of Leaders Under Proportional Representation

T2 - Quantitative Analysis of Text in an Electoral Experiment

AU - Fredén, Annika

AU - Sikström, Sverker

N1 - Copyright © 2021 Fredén and Sikström.

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - We propose that leaders play a more important role in voters' party sympathy in proportional representation systems (PR) than previous research has suggested. Voters, from the 2018 Swedish General Election, were in an experiment asked to describe leaders and parties with three indicative keywords. Statistical models were conducted on these text data to predict their vote choice. The results show that despite that the voters vote for a party, the descriptions of leaders predicted vote choice to a similar extent as descriptions of parties. However, the order of the questions mattered, so that the first questions were more predictive than the second question. These analyses indicate that voters tend to conflate characteristics of leaders with their parties during election campaigns, and that leaders are a more important aspect of voting under PR than previous literature has suggested. Overall, this suggests that statistical analysis of words sheds new light of underlying sympathies related to voting.

AB - We propose that leaders play a more important role in voters' party sympathy in proportional representation systems (PR) than previous research has suggested. Voters, from the 2018 Swedish General Election, were in an experiment asked to describe leaders and parties with three indicative keywords. Statistical models were conducted on these text data to predict their vote choice. The results show that despite that the voters vote for a party, the descriptions of leaders predicted vote choice to a similar extent as descriptions of parties. However, the order of the questions mattered, so that the first questions were more predictive than the second question. These analyses indicate that voters tend to conflate characteristics of leaders with their parties during election campaigns, and that leaders are a more important aspect of voting under PR than previous literature has suggested. Overall, this suggests that statistical analysis of words sheds new light of underlying sympathies related to voting.

KW - leaders

KW - parties

KW - voting

KW - primacy

KW - proportional representation

KW - statistical semantics

U2 - 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.604135

DO - 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.604135

M3 - Article

C2 - 34054637

VL - 12

SP - 604135

JO - Frontiers in Psychology

JF - Frontiers in Psychology

SN - 1664-1078

ER -