STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF EXTREME SEA WATER LEVELS AT THE FALSTERBO PENINSULA, SOUTH SWEDEN

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragArtikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift

Abstract

Falsterbo Peninsula on the south coast of Sweden is low-lying and exposed to flooding. In 1872 the extreme
storm surge Backafloden caused large devastation on the Swedish, Danish, and German coasts in the South
Baltic Sea. For the Falsterbo Peninsula, the peak storm surge level is estimated to have been 240 cm above
normal. If a similar event happened today, the consequences would be far worse, as extensive flood prone areas
have been developed since 1872. Due to climate change, the mean sea level is expected to rise and increase the
flood risk unless preventive measures are taken. This paper discusses the occurrence of extreme sea levels at the
Falsterbo Peninsula and design levels for coastal protection. Sea level observations from Skanör, Klagshamn,
and Ystad are analysed with General Extreme Value and General Pareto Distribution models to estimate sea
levels with return periods of 100–500 years. The estimated return period of the 1872 event, based on these
models, resulted in an unrealistically low probability. To better understand the statistical behaviour of extreme
storm surges of this magnitude on the Swedish south coast, development of more advanced statistical models
will be required.

Detaljer

Författare
Enheter & grupper
Forskningsområden

Ämnesklassifikation (UKÄ) – OBLIGATORISK

  • Sannolikhetsteori och statistik
  • Oceanografi, hydrologi, vattenresurser

Nyckelord

  • Extreme sea levels, Coastal flooding, The Falsterbo Peninsula, South Baltic Sea, General Extreme Value distribution, General Pareto Distribution, Backafloden, 1872 storm surge
Originalspråkengelska
Sidor (från-till)129-144
Antal sidor16
TidskriftVatten: tidskrift för vattenvård /Journal of Water Management and research
Volym2016
Utgåva nummer2
StatusPublished - 2016 sep 7
PublikationskategoriForskning
Peer review utfördNej