Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models

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Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models. / Luo, Yiqi; Ahlström, Anders; Allison, Steven D.; Batjes, Niels H.; Brovkin, Victor; Carvalhais, Nuno; Chappell, Adrian; Ciais, Philippe; Davidson, Eric A.; Finzi, Adien; Georgiou, Katerina; Guenet, Bertrand; Hararuk, Oleksandra; Harden, Jennifer W.; He, Yujie; Hopkins, Francesca; Jiang, Lifen; Koven, Charlie; Jackson, Robert B.; Jones, Chris D.; Lara, Mark J.; Liang, Junyi; McGuire, A. David; Parton, William; Peng, Changhui; Randerson, James T.; Salazar, Alejandro; Sierra, Carlos A.; Smith, Matthew J.; Tian, Hanqin; Todd-Brown, Katherine E.O.; Torn, Margaret; Van Groenigen, Kees Jan; Wang, Ying Ping; West, Tristram O.; Wei, Yaxing; Wieder, William R.; Xia, Jianyang; Xu, Xia; Xu, Xiaofeng; Zhou, Tao.

I: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 30, Nr. 1, 01.01.2016, s. 40-56.

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragArtikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift

Harvard

Luo, Y, Ahlström, A, Allison, SD, Batjes, NH, Brovkin, V, Carvalhais, N, Chappell, A, Ciais, P, Davidson, EA, Finzi, A, Georgiou, K, Guenet, B, Hararuk, O, Harden, JW, He, Y, Hopkins, F, Jiang, L, Koven, C, Jackson, RB, Jones, CD, Lara, MJ, Liang, J, McGuire, AD, Parton, W, Peng, C, Randerson, JT, Salazar, A, Sierra, CA, Smith, MJ, Tian, H, Todd-Brown, KEO, Torn, M, Van Groenigen, KJ, Wang, YP, West, TO, Wei, Y, Wieder, WR, Xia, J, Xu, X, Xu, X & Zhou, T 2016, 'Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models', Global Biogeochemical Cycles, vol. 30, nr. 1, s. 40-56. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005239

APA

Luo, Y., Ahlström, A., Allison, S. D., Batjes, N. H., Brovkin, V., Carvalhais, N., Chappell, A., Ciais, P., Davidson, E. A., Finzi, A., Georgiou, K., Guenet, B., Hararuk, O., Harden, J. W., He, Y., Hopkins, F., Jiang, L., Koven, C., Jackson, R. B., ... Zhou, T. (2016). Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 30(1), 40-56. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005239

CBE

Luo Y, Ahlström A, Allison SD, Batjes NH, Brovkin V, Carvalhais N, Chappell A, Ciais P, Davidson EA, Finzi A, Georgiou K, Guenet B, Hararuk O, Harden JW, He Y, Hopkins F, Jiang L, Koven C, Jackson RB, Jones CD, Lara MJ, Liang J, McGuire AD, Parton W, Peng C, Randerson JT, Salazar A, Sierra CA, Smith MJ, Tian H, Todd-Brown KEO, Torn M, Van Groenigen KJ, Wang YP, West TO, Wei Y, Wieder WR, Xia J, Xu X, Xu X, Zhou T. 2016. Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 30(1):40-56. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005239

MLA

Vancouver

Author

Luo, Yiqi ; Ahlström, Anders ; Allison, Steven D. ; Batjes, Niels H. ; Brovkin, Victor ; Carvalhais, Nuno ; Chappell, Adrian ; Ciais, Philippe ; Davidson, Eric A. ; Finzi, Adien ; Georgiou, Katerina ; Guenet, Bertrand ; Hararuk, Oleksandra ; Harden, Jennifer W. ; He, Yujie ; Hopkins, Francesca ; Jiang, Lifen ; Koven, Charlie ; Jackson, Robert B. ; Jones, Chris D. ; Lara, Mark J. ; Liang, Junyi ; McGuire, A. David ; Parton, William ; Peng, Changhui ; Randerson, James T. ; Salazar, Alejandro ; Sierra, Carlos A. ; Smith, Matthew J. ; Tian, Hanqin ; Todd-Brown, Katherine E.O. ; Torn, Margaret ; Van Groenigen, Kees Jan ; Wang, Ying Ping ; West, Tristram O. ; Wei, Yaxing ; Wieder, William R. ; Xia, Jianyang ; Xu, Xia ; Xu, Xiaofeng ; Zhou, Tao. / Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models. I: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 2016 ; Vol. 30, Nr. 1. s. 40-56.

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models

AU - Luo, Yiqi

AU - Ahlström, Anders

AU - Allison, Steven D.

AU - Batjes, Niels H.

AU - Brovkin, Victor

AU - Carvalhais, Nuno

AU - Chappell, Adrian

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Davidson, Eric A.

AU - Finzi, Adien

AU - Georgiou, Katerina

AU - Guenet, Bertrand

AU - Hararuk, Oleksandra

AU - Harden, Jennifer W.

AU - He, Yujie

AU - Hopkins, Francesca

AU - Jiang, Lifen

AU - Koven, Charlie

AU - Jackson, Robert B.

AU - Jones, Chris D.

AU - Lara, Mark J.

AU - Liang, Junyi

AU - McGuire, A. David

AU - Parton, William

AU - Peng, Changhui

AU - Randerson, James T.

AU - Salazar, Alejandro

AU - Sierra, Carlos A.

AU - Smith, Matthew J.

AU - Tian, Hanqin

AU - Todd-Brown, Katherine E.O.

AU - Torn, Margaret

AU - Van Groenigen, Kees Jan

AU - Wang, Ying Ping

AU - West, Tristram O.

AU - Wei, Yaxing

AU - Wieder, William R.

AU - Xia, Jianyang

AU - Xu, Xia

AU - Xu, Xiaofeng

AU - Zhou, Tao

PY - 2016/1/1

Y1 - 2016/1/1

N2 - Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Third, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable data sets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.

AB - Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Third, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable data sets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.

KW - CMIP5

KW - Earth system models

KW - realistic projections

KW - recommendations

KW - soil carbon dynamics

U2 - 10.1002/2015GB005239

DO - 10.1002/2015GB005239

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84956641600

VL - 30

SP - 40

EP - 56

JO - Global Biogeochemical Cycles

JF - Global Biogeochemical Cycles

SN - 0886-6236

IS - 1

ER -