A Process for Improved Decision-Support based on Probabilistic Methods for Risk Analysis and Building Energy Performance

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This paper presents a preliminary method developed for improved decision-support based on probabilistic methods for risk assessment using building performance simulations. The aim of the method is to support the decision-maker in all stages of the building process when deciding on the design of a building by including uncertainties and quantifying; the probability of fulfilling objectives; energy performance; economic consequences; and risk level. The results are then used in a comparative study of alternative building designs. The method was tested in a case study by evaluating two alternative designs based on 15 stochastic parameters using 1000 simulations for each design-alternative. Calculated values were compared to measured data from 26 identical single-family passive houses.


Konferens2020 Building Performance Analysis Conference & SimBuild

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