A simple mortality prediction model for sepsis patients in intensive care

Background: Sepsis is common in the intensive care unit (ICU). Two of the ICU’s most widely used mortality prediction models are the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS-3) and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. We aimed to assess the mortality prediction performance of SAPS-3 and SOFA upon ICU admission for sepsis and find a simpler mortality prediction model for these patients to be used in clinical practice and when conducting studies. Methods: A retrospective study of adult patients fulfilling the Sepsis-3 criteria admitted to four general ICUs was performed. A simple prognostic model was created using backward stepwise multivariate logistic regression. The area under the curve (AUC) of SAPS-3, SOFA and the simple model was assessed. Results: One thousand nine hundred eighty four admissions were included. A simple six-parameter model consisting of age, immunosuppression, Glasgow Coma Scale, body temperature, C-reactive protein and bilirubin had an AUC of 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69–0.75) for 30-day mortality, which was non-inferior to SAPS-3 (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.72–0.77) (p = 0.071). SOFA had an AUC of 0.67 (95% CI 0.64–0.70) and was inferior to SAPS-3 (p < 0.001) and our simple model (p = 0.0019). Conclusion: SAPS-3 has a lower prognostic value in sepsis than in the general ICU population. SOFA performs less well than SAPS-3. Our simple six-parameter model predicts mortality just as well as SAPS-3 upon ICU admission for sepsis, allowing the design of simple studies and performance monitoring.