China and the inherent risks involved in the SCO’s future development

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In June 2001 the Shanghai Cooperation Organization or SCO was formally inaugurated. The SCO had as of 2001 as its full members China, Russia, Kakakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Since that time Mongolia, India, Pakistan and Iran have been accepted as observers. There is speculation that Turkmenistan, following its recent change of regime, may also join the SCO in some way in the near future. The US, the European Union, and Japan significantly have not been permitted any form of affiliation with the SCO.

Through its full members, the SCO currently covers more than three fifths of the Eurasian landmass and represents one quarter of the world’s population. If we include its observers within the limits of its outreach, the thus expanded organisation includes approximately half the world’s population as well as four openly declared nuclear powers. Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are four of the top twenty countries in the world in terms of proven natural gas reserves.

China has become, in tact with its economic development, one of the world’s major consumers of oil and gas. In fact, China and India together have less than 2% of the global gas reserves. Compared with Russia (27%) and Iran (15%). China has significant security concerns in Xinjiang, and potentially with infiltration from Central Asian countries.

This paper examines the risks involved for China in the future development of the SCO, an organisation in which each member is treated as an equal, where full consensus is required for decision-making, and where each member possesses a veto. The SCO which came into existence as a forum in which to ratify China’s borders with neighbours, has rapidly developed into an organisation attracting global attention and, possibly, aiming at playing a global role. What are the risks and opportunities offered by membership in the SCO to China intent on its ‘peaceful rise’?
StatusSubmitted - 2007
EvenemangFraming Risk: Hazard Perceptions as a Crucial Factor in Imagining East Asia - Lund, Sverige
Varaktighet: 2007 jun 1 → …


KonferensFraming Risk: Hazard Perceptions as a Crucial Factor in Imagining East Asia
Period2007/06/01 → …

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