Discerning Progress in Schellenberg's Evolutionary Religion

John L. Schellenberg has suggested that we should guide the evolution of religion towards the goal of discovering the truth about transcendent reality. I argue that we need some way of discerning progress if this project is to be practically feasible. I explore what discernible progress would require in some possible future scenarios. Focus lies on scenarios involving improved cognitive contact with the transcendent, but I also consider scenarios involving only cultural change, and scenarios where no transcendent reality exists. I conclude that whether progress can be discerned varies heavily between different versions of these scenarios and I therefore suggest that we are currently too ignorant to get the project started.