Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Syndromic Healthcare Data, Sweden, 2020

Armin Spreco, Anna Jöud, Olle Eriksson, Kristian Soltesz, Reidar Källström, Örjan Dahlström, Henrik Eriksson, Joakim Ekberg, Carl Oscar Jonson, Carl Johan Fraenkel, Torbjörn Lundh, Philip Gerlee, Fredrik Gustafsson, Toomas Timpka

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragArtikel i vetenskaplig tidskriftPeer review

1 Citering (SciVal)

Sammanfattning

We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Östergötland County (population ≈465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r>0.80; mean absolute percentage error <20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance until the incidence decreased to <1.5/100,000 population, whereas the corresponding performance for fever by adult was unsatisfactory. Our results support local nowcasting of hospitalizations on the basis of symptom data recorded in routine healthcare during the initial stage of a pandemic.

Originalspråkengelska
Sidor (från-till)564-571
Antal sidor8
TidskriftEmerging Infectious Diseases
Volym28
Utgåva3
DOI
StatusPublished - 2022 mars

Ämnesklassifikation (UKÄ)

  • Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi

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