Probabilistic analysis of climate change impact on fungal decay of timber elements in ground contact and their long-term structural performance

Climate change can substantially affect infrastructure performance and safety. In this article, the impact of climate change on fungal decay of wooden infrastructure in ground contact is investigated. For this purpose, projections of three different climate change scenarios are used to assess the impact of climate change on fungal decay rate of untreated clear wood elements in ground contact in Sweden. The highest increase in the average decay rate is observed for four counties located in mid-Sweden, i.e. Örebro, Värmland, Västmanland, and Gävleborg. Furthermore, two illustrative examples are presented to demonstrate the impact of the increased decay rates on the structural performance and long-term reliability of timber elements in four selected counties, Skåne (southernmost Sweden), Örebro, Värmland, and Västmanland. In the first illustrative example, the impact of climate change on the bending moment capacity of untreated timber utility poles is assessed while in the second the impact on the long-term reliability of axially loaded untreated columns is investigated. In the four studied counties, it is found that climate change can have considerable impacts on the structural performance and long-term reliability of timber elements in ground contact.