Proposed Method for Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Building Performance Simulations and Stochastic Parameters

As parts of the world continue the work of mitigating the impact of climate change, many countries strive for continued reductions in energy demand from buildings by implementing more stringent building regulations. Consequently, the importance of accurate and efficient building performance simulations to predict the energy use of a building design increases. As observed in earlier studies, there is a performance gap between the predicted annual energy demand from building energy performance simulations based on deterministic methods compared to the monitored annual energy use of a building. This paper presents a preliminary method developed for probabilistic risk analysis of the energy performance of buildings using stochastic parameters. The method is used to calculate the probability for the energy performance of a building design to fulfil the energy requirements. Then the consequences are quantified and used to evaluate the inherent risk of a building design. The method was evaluated in a case study – applied to 26 single-family homes - and tested against measured data.