TY - JOUR

T1 - Shogenji's Measure of Justification and the Inverse Conjunction Fallacy

AU - Jönsson, Martin

AU - Assarsson, Elias

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - This paper takes issue with a recent proposal due to Shogenji (Synthese 184:29-48, 2012). In his paper, Shogenji introduces J, a normatively motivated formal measure of justification (and of confirmation), and then proceeds to recruit it descriptively in an explanation of the conjunction fallacy. We argue that this explanation is undermined by the fact that it cannot be extended in any natural way to the inverse conjunction fallacy, a more recently discovered, closely related fallacy. We point out that since the inverse conjunction fallacy occurs in the absence of any form of explicit evidence, formal measures of confirmation such as J, are hard pressed to apply to it at all. We then proceed to argue that this problem with Shogenji's measure is actually quite difficult to come to terms with; even if the situations where people commit the inverse conjunction fallacy are understood in such a way that the measure is applicable, it doesn't seem possible to reasonably interpret these situations in such a way that the measure can explain the found response pattern.

AB - This paper takes issue with a recent proposal due to Shogenji (Synthese 184:29-48, 2012). In his paper, Shogenji introduces J, a normatively motivated formal measure of justification (and of confirmation), and then proceeds to recruit it descriptively in an explanation of the conjunction fallacy. We argue that this explanation is undermined by the fact that it cannot be extended in any natural way to the inverse conjunction fallacy, a more recently discovered, closely related fallacy. We point out that since the inverse conjunction fallacy occurs in the absence of any form of explicit evidence, formal measures of confirmation such as J, are hard pressed to apply to it at all. We then proceed to argue that this problem with Shogenji's measure is actually quite difficult to come to terms with; even if the situations where people commit the inverse conjunction fallacy are understood in such a way that the measure is applicable, it doesn't seem possible to reasonably interpret these situations in such a way that the measure can explain the found response pattern.

KW - Conjunction fallacy

KW - Inverse conjunction fallacy

KW - Degree of

KW - confirmation

KW - Degree of Justification

KW - Bayesian epistemology

U2 - 10.1007/s11229-012-0125-8

DO - 10.1007/s11229-012-0125-8

M3 - Article

SN - 0039-7857

VL - 190

SP - 3075

EP - 3085

JO - Synthese

JF - Synthese

IS - 15

ER -