Uncertainty of B-value estimation in connection with magnitude distribution properties of small data sets

K. Leptokaropoulos, A. Adamaki

Forskningsoutput: Kapitel i bok/rapport/Conference proceedingKonferenspaper i proceedingPeer review

Sammanfattning

We evaluate the efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator introduced by Aki (1965), using synthetic datasets exhibiting diverse but well defined properties. The deviation of the b-value estimation from its real value is quantified by Monte Carlo simulations as a function of catalogue features and data properties such as the sample size, the magnitude uncertainties distribution, the round-off interval of reported magnitude values and the magnitude range. Within the objective of this study, algorithms have been compiled for the determination of such observational-theoretical deviations and to facilitate the construction of nomograms corresponding to diverse cases of input parameters. In this way, a more accurate estimation of the uncertainty level for the b-value and MC determination can be achieved, contributing to a more robust seismic hazard assessment, especially at low activity areas and induced seismicity sites. Our results indicate that b-value analysis, especially for small datasets should be carried out together with Magnitude range analysis. Nomograms should be constructed and adjusted to each particular case study in order to achieve a more accurate estimation of the b-value and the corresponding uncertainty.

Originalspråkengelska
Titel på värdpublikation7th EAGE Workshop on Passive Seismic 2018
FörlagEuropean Association of Geoscientists and Engineers
ISBN (elektroniskt)9789462822443
StatusPublished - 2018
Externt publiceradJa
Evenemang7th EAGE Workshop on Passive Seismic 2018 - Krakow, Polen
Varaktighet: 2018 mars 262018 mars 29

Publikationsserier

Namn7th EAGE Workshop on Passive Seismic 2018
Volym2018-March

Konferens

Konferens7th EAGE Workshop on Passive Seismic 2018
Land/TerritoriumPolen
OrtKrakow
Period2018/03/262018/03/29

Ämnesklassifikation (UKÄ)

  • Sannolikhetsteori och statistik

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