Valuing Reductions in the Risk of Traffic Accidents Based on Empirical Studies in Sweden

Ulf Persson

Valuing Reductions in the Risk of Traffic Accidents Based on Empirical Studies in Sweden

Ulf Persson

Trafik och väg

Forskningsoutput: Avhandling › Doktorsavhandling (sammanläggning)

Sammanfattning

Popular Abstract in Swedish
I början av 1990-talet accepterade Vägverket metoden att mäta nyttan av trafiksäkerhet utifrån skattning av enskilda individers betalningsvilja för riskreduktion. Sedan dess har det diskuterats hur man ska gå tillväga för att finna den mest tillförlitliga metoden för att empiriskt mäta individernas betalningsvilja. Syftet med denna avhandling är att beskriva och analysera olika metoder för att skatta värdet av trafiksäkerhet och presentera resultat som kan beaktas av Vägverket inför framtida revideringar av värdet på trafiksäkerhet. Två contingent valuation (CV) skattningar från Sverige presenteras där individerna uppskattar sin egen subjektiva risk och betalningsviljan för en individuell riskreduktion. De två studierna innehåller delpopulationer med frågor som gör att man kan undersöka olika typer av snedvridning. Resultat från den första studien som genomfördes 1993/1994 gav en skattning på värdet av ett statistiskt liv (VOSL) av 13 miljoner kronor i 2001 års priser. Resultat från den andra studien från 1989 gav en skattning på 21 miljoner kronor i 2001 års priser. Värdet på VOSL som accepterades av de svenska trafikverken år 2002 uppgår till 16,3 miljoner kronor i 2001 års priser. Resultat från en internationell översikt visar att det accepterade svenska värdet på VOSL är lägre än motsvarande värde i USA men i ungefär samma storleksordning som i Storbritannien. Skattningar visar också att en trafiksäkerhetsreglering som kostar mer än 116 miljoner kronor per statistiskt inbesparat liv är kontraproduktivt eftersom den orsakar fler dödsfall än den förebygger. En metod presenteras för att beräkna värdet av ickedödliga trafikskador. Värdet av att förhindra en genomsnittlig svår och en genomsnittlig lindrig trafikskada skattades till omkring 16 respektive 1 procent av VOSL. Den här avhandlingen ger också inblick i hur känslig skattningen av betalningsviljan är för individernas svårigheter att betrakta små skillnader i omfattning och storlek på risken. Resultat från CV studierna visar hur viktigt det är att individerna får information om risker och kostnader för alternativa varor och tjänster på marknaden. Annars har de stora svårigheter att göra rationella val på hypotetiska marknader. Här redovisas också exempel från studier där individer med bestående skador följts upp under lång tid, åtta år, efter olyckan och där kostnader för vård, omsorg och produktionsbortfall beräknas. Dessa s k incidensstudier, visar att omkring 2/3 av kostnaderna uppstår 2-8 år efter olyckan. De visar också hur viktigt det är, och hur svårt det är, att beräkna denna typ av kostnader. Slutsatserna gäller både hur man bör tolka de skattade värdena och hur man bör utforma framtida studier.

Originalspråk	engelska
Kvalifikation	Doktor
Tilldelande institution	Trafik och väg
Handledare	[unknown], [unknown], handledare, Extern person
Tilldelningsdatum	2004 feb. 27
Förlag	Lund Institute of Technology
Status	Published - 2004

Bibliografisk information

Defence details

Date: 2004-02-27
Time: 13:15
Place: Room V:B, V-building, John Ericssons väg 1, Lund Institute of Technology

External reviewer(s)

Name: Jones-Lee, Michael
Title: Professor
Affiliation: University of Newcastle upon Tyne

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Article: Trawén A, Maraste P, Persson U. Costs per Fatal Casualty in Traffic Accidents – an International Comparison of Values used in Traffic Planning. Accident Analysis and Prevention 2002;34:323-332.

Article: Persson U, Norinder A, Svensson M. Valuing the Benefits Reducing the Risk of Non-Fatal Traffic Injuries: The Swedish Experience. In Schwab C and Soguel N (eds.) Contingent Valuation, Transport Safety and the Value of Life. Studies in Risk and Uncertainty. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1995.

Article: Persson U, Norinder A, Hjalte K, Gralén K. The Value of Statistical Life in Transport: Findings from a New Contingent Valuation Study in Sweden. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 2001;23(2):121-134

Article: Persson U, Trawén, A, Norinder A, Hjalte K, Andersson H. Relative Risk Values of Non-Fatal Traffic Injuries – A Comparison Between Contingent Valuation, Risk-Risk Trade Off and Standard Gamble Methods. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics 2001:137(1)117-128

Article: Norinder A, Hjalte K, Persson U. Scope and Scale Insensitivities in a Contingent Valuation Study of Risk Reductions. Health Policy 2001;57:141-153

Article: Hjalte K, Norinder A, Persson U, Maraste P. Health-Health Analysis – An Alternative Method for Economic Appraisal of Health Policy and Safety Regulation. Some Swedish Estimates. Accident Analysis and Prevention 2003;35:37-46.

Article: Maraste P, Persson U, Berntman M. Long-term follow-up and consequences for severe road traffic injuries – treatment costs and health impairment in the 1960’s and 1990’s in Sweden Health Policy 2003;66(2):147-158.

Article: Persson U, Maraste P, Berntman M, Svensson M. The economic consequences of long-term traffic injuries – an eight-year follow-up of non-fatal casualties (Submitted)

Ämnesklassifikation (UKÄ)

Infrastrukturteknik

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title = "Valuing Reductions in the Risk of Traffic Accidents Based on Empirical Studies in Sweden",

abstract = "At the beginning of the 1990s the Swedish National Road Administration (SNRA) adopted the willingness to pay (WTP) approach for estimating the benefits of safety improvements. However, since then there have been discussions about how to find the most valid and reliable empirical methods to conduct WTP studies. The purpose of this thesis is to describe and analyze approaches used to estimate the value of safety and to present empirical results that might be considered for future revisions of SNRA{\textquoteright}s value of safety. Two contingent valuation (CV) studies from Sweden are presented, in which individuals estimate their own subjective risk and their WTP for an individual risk reduction. The two studies each include two sub-samples, with questions to test for different kinds of bias. Results from the first study conducted in 1993/1994 provided an estimate of the value of a statistical life (VOSL) of SEK13 million in 2001 prices. Results from the other study from 1998 indicated an estimate of VOSL of about SEK21 million in 2001 prices. The VOSL adopted by the Swedish authorities in 2002 was 16.3 million in 2001 prices. Results from an international survey show that the Swed-ish accepted VOSL was lower than the accepted VOSL in the US, but of the same magnitude as in the UK. Estimates also indicate that a safety regulation which costs more than SEK116 million on average per life saved will be counterproductive by causing more deaths than it intends to prevent. A method is presented for estimating the value of reducing the risk of non-fatal casualties. The value of preventing an average severe injury and average slight traffic injury was estimated to about 16% and 1% of the VOSL, respectively. This thesis also provides a new insight into how sensitive results of WTP are for subjects{\textquoteright} inability to consider small differences in terms of the scope and scale of the physical risks. Results from the CV studies show the impor-tance of providing information to respondents, on risks and costs for alternative goods and services on the market, in order to improve their ability to make rational decisions on hypothetical markets. In addition, estimates from long-term follow-up studies of the value of resources used to treat and rehabilitate non-fatal traffic injuries are presented. These estimates are based on the incidence approach. Results from incidence studies indicate that about 2/3 of the long-term costs appeared 2-8 years after the accident. These results show the importance and the difficulties of long-term follow-up studies for collecting resource use data. Conclu-sions yield both the interpretation of estimated values and the design of future studies.",

keywords = "S{\"a}kerhetsteknik, Safety technology, V{\"a}gtransportteknik, Road transport technology, Road Traffic, Risk Reduction, Value of Life, Cost of Accidents, Stated Preference, Contingent Valuation",

author = "Ulf Persson",

note = "Defence details Date: 2004-02-27 Time: 13:15 Place: Room V:B, V-building, John Ericssons v{\"a}g 1, Lund Institute of Technology External reviewer(s) Name: Jones-Lee, Michael Title: Professor Affiliation: University of Newcastle upon Tyne --- Article: Traw{\'e}n A, Maraste P, Persson U. Costs per Fatal Casualty in Traffic Accidents – an International Comparison of Values used in Traffic Planning. Accident Analysis and Prevention 2002;34:323-332. Article: Persson U, Norinder A, Svensson M. Valuing the Benefits Reducing the Risk of Non-Fatal Traffic Injuries: The Swedish Experience. In Schwab C and Soguel N (eds.) Contingent Valuation, Transport Safety and the Value of Life. Studies in Risk and Uncertainty. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1995. Article: Persson U, Norinder A, Hjalte K, Gral{\'e}n K. The Value of Statistical Life in Transport: Findings from a New Contingent Valuation Study in Sweden. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 2001;23(2):121-134 Article: Persson U, Traw{\'e}n, A, Norinder A, Hjalte K, Andersson H. Relative Risk Values of Non-Fatal Traffic Injuries – A Comparison Between Contingent Valuation, Risk-Risk Trade Off and Standard Gamble Methods. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics 2001:137(1)117-128 Article: Norinder A, Hjalte K, Persson U. Scope and Scale Insensitivities in a Contingent Valuation Study of Risk Reductions. Health Policy 2001;57:141-153 Article: Hjalte K, Norinder A, Persson U, Maraste P. Health-Health Analysis – An Alternative Method for Economic Appraisal of Health Policy and Safety Regulation. Some Swedish Estimates. Accident Analysis and Prevention 2003;35:37-46. Article: Maraste P, Persson U, Berntman M. Long-term follow-up and consequences for severe road traffic injuries – treatment costs and health impairment in the 1960{\textquoteright}s and 1990{\textquoteright}s in Sweden Health Policy 2003;66(2):147-158. Article: Persson U, Maraste P, Berntman M, Svensson M. The economic consequences of long-term traffic injuries – an eight-year follow-up of non-fatal casualties (Submitted)",

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AU - Persson, Ulf

N1 - Defence details Date: 2004-02-27 Time: 13:15 Place: Room V:B, V-building, John Ericssons väg 1, Lund Institute of Technology External reviewer(s) Name: Jones-Lee, Michael Title: Professor Affiliation: University of Newcastle upon Tyne --- Article: Trawén A, Maraste P, Persson U. Costs per Fatal Casualty in Traffic Accidents – an International Comparison of Values used in Traffic Planning. Accident Analysis and Prevention 2002;34:323-332. Article: Persson U, Norinder A, Svensson M. Valuing the Benefits Reducing the Risk of Non-Fatal Traffic Injuries: The Swedish Experience. In Schwab C and Soguel N (eds.) Contingent Valuation, Transport Safety and the Value of Life. Studies in Risk and Uncertainty. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1995. Article: Persson U, Norinder A, Hjalte K, Gralén K. The Value of Statistical Life in Transport: Findings from a New Contingent Valuation Study in Sweden. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 2001;23(2):121-134 Article: Persson U, Trawén, A, Norinder A, Hjalte K, Andersson H. Relative Risk Values of Non-Fatal Traffic Injuries – A Comparison Between Contingent Valuation, Risk-Risk Trade Off and Standard Gamble Methods. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics 2001:137(1)117-128 Article: Norinder A, Hjalte K, Persson U. Scope and Scale Insensitivities in a Contingent Valuation Study of Risk Reductions. Health Policy 2001;57:141-153 Article: Hjalte K, Norinder A, Persson U, Maraste P. Health-Health Analysis – An Alternative Method for Economic Appraisal of Health Policy and Safety Regulation. Some Swedish Estimates. Accident Analysis and Prevention 2003;35:37-46. Article: Maraste P, Persson U, Berntman M. Long-term follow-up and consequences for severe road traffic injuries – treatment costs and health impairment in the 1960’s and 1990’s in Sweden Health Policy 2003;66(2):147-158. Article: Persson U, Maraste P, Berntman M, Svensson M. The economic consequences of long-term traffic injuries – an eight-year follow-up of non-fatal casualties (Submitted)

PY - 2004

Y1 - 2004

N2 - At the beginning of the 1990s the Swedish National Road Administration (SNRA) adopted the willingness to pay (WTP) approach for estimating the benefits of safety improvements. However, since then there have been discussions about how to find the most valid and reliable empirical methods to conduct WTP studies. The purpose of this thesis is to describe and analyze approaches used to estimate the value of safety and to present empirical results that might be considered for future revisions of SNRA’s value of safety. Two contingent valuation (CV) studies from Sweden are presented, in which individuals estimate their own subjective risk and their WTP for an individual risk reduction. The two studies each include two sub-samples, with questions to test for different kinds of bias. Results from the first study conducted in 1993/1994 provided an estimate of the value of a statistical life (VOSL) of SEK13 million in 2001 prices. Results from the other study from 1998 indicated an estimate of VOSL of about SEK21 million in 2001 prices. The VOSL adopted by the Swedish authorities in 2002 was 16.3 million in 2001 prices. Results from an international survey show that the Swed-ish accepted VOSL was lower than the accepted VOSL in the US, but of the same magnitude as in the UK. Estimates also indicate that a safety regulation which costs more than SEK116 million on average per life saved will be counterproductive by causing more deaths than it intends to prevent. A method is presented for estimating the value of reducing the risk of non-fatal casualties. The value of preventing an average severe injury and average slight traffic injury was estimated to about 16% and 1% of the VOSL, respectively. This thesis also provides a new insight into how sensitive results of WTP are for subjects’ inability to consider small differences in terms of the scope and scale of the physical risks. Results from the CV studies show the impor-tance of providing information to respondents, on risks and costs for alternative goods and services on the market, in order to improve their ability to make rational decisions on hypothetical markets. In addition, estimates from long-term follow-up studies of the value of resources used to treat and rehabilitate non-fatal traffic injuries are presented. These estimates are based on the incidence approach. Results from incidence studies indicate that about 2/3 of the long-term costs appeared 2-8 years after the accident. These results show the importance and the difficulties of long-term follow-up studies for collecting resource use data. Conclu-sions yield both the interpretation of estimated values and the design of future studies.

AB - At the beginning of the 1990s the Swedish National Road Administration (SNRA) adopted the willingness to pay (WTP) approach for estimating the benefits of safety improvements. However, since then there have been discussions about how to find the most valid and reliable empirical methods to conduct WTP studies. The purpose of this thesis is to describe and analyze approaches used to estimate the value of safety and to present empirical results that might be considered for future revisions of SNRA’s value of safety. Two contingent valuation (CV) studies from Sweden are presented, in which individuals estimate their own subjective risk and their WTP for an individual risk reduction. The two studies each include two sub-samples, with questions to test for different kinds of bias. Results from the first study conducted in 1993/1994 provided an estimate of the value of a statistical life (VOSL) of SEK13 million in 2001 prices. Results from the other study from 1998 indicated an estimate of VOSL of about SEK21 million in 2001 prices. The VOSL adopted by the Swedish authorities in 2002 was 16.3 million in 2001 prices. Results from an international survey show that the Swed-ish accepted VOSL was lower than the accepted VOSL in the US, but of the same magnitude as in the UK. Estimates also indicate that a safety regulation which costs more than SEK116 million on average per life saved will be counterproductive by causing more deaths than it intends to prevent. A method is presented for estimating the value of reducing the risk of non-fatal casualties. The value of preventing an average severe injury and average slight traffic injury was estimated to about 16% and 1% of the VOSL, respectively. This thesis also provides a new insight into how sensitive results of WTP are for subjects’ inability to consider small differences in terms of the scope and scale of the physical risks. Results from the CV studies show the impor-tance of providing information to respondents, on risks and costs for alternative goods and services on the market, in order to improve their ability to make rational decisions on hypothetical markets. In addition, estimates from long-term follow-up studies of the value of resources used to treat and rehabilitate non-fatal traffic injuries are presented. These estimates are based on the incidence approach. Results from incidence studies indicate that about 2/3 of the long-term costs appeared 2-8 years after the accident. These results show the importance and the difficulties of long-term follow-up studies for collecting resource use data. Conclu-sions yield both the interpretation of estimated values and the design of future studies.

KW - Säkerhetsteknik

KW - Safety technology

KW - Vägtransportteknik

KW - Road transport technology

KW - Road Traffic

KW - Risk Reduction

KW - Value of Life

KW - Cost of Accidents

KW - Stated Preference

KW - Contingent Valuation

M3 - Doctoral Thesis (compilation)

PB - Lund Institute of Technology

ER -

Valuing Reductions in the Risk of Traffic Accidents Based on Empirical Studies in Sweden

Sammanfattning

Bibliografisk information

Ämnesklassifikation (UKÄ)

FN:s Globala mål

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